Category Archives: Technical Analysis

Copper Price Hits 9-year Highs

Copper price hits 9-year highs amid strong demand for manufactured goods and China’s strong economic rebound after the coronavirus health crisis. The first-month futures contracts in COMEX is trading at $3.9635 having early today as high as $3.9750, a price that we haven’t seen since February 2012. Copper hit $4.65 per pound, the all-time high, back in February 2011.

In London Metal Exchange the three-month copper futures trading today at 8632 per tonne.

Copper price ended in 2020 with over 22% gains, while now Copper is on track for it’s 11th straight monthly gains, while is 8.8% higher since the start of the year. The gains since the March 2020 lows are now up to 98%. Many analysts believe that the rally is just the start of a super-cycle in metals as the demand for the base metals from renewable energy projects is growing.

The main factors that drive the recent rally are the weak U.S. dollar the rising inflation expectations in the USA and below-average stock levels. Excess demand from China and South Korea also boosts the copper price.

Goldman Raised the Copper Price Target

Goldman Sachs has raised the copper target price in the next 12-months to $10.500 per metric ton as the big deficit on copper scarcity expects to rise amid increased demand. Goldman also set the 3-month price target at $9.200 per metric ton and the 9-month target at $9.800.

Goldman expects that copper price will average at $8,625 in 2021, and an average of $9,175 in 2022.

Copper Technical Analysis

The Copper price is 1.60% higher at 3.9630 having hit the daily high which is also an all-time high at 3.9750. The trend is clearly bullish for the industrial metal and higher levels are on the cards. A warning signal for bulls is that the copper price has reached an overbought level as the RSI 14 hovers today above the 78 mark, while on the weekly chart the RSI is at 76.87 just below the all-time high that the RSI reached back in December 2020.

First miner resistance for the copper stands at 3.9895 the high from February 6, 2012. More selling pressure would emerge at 4.0245 the top from September 11, 2011. The most critical point is the top from August 29, 2011, at 4.2055 which if breached might push the price up to all-time highs.

On the other hand, support for copper price would be met at 3.8855 the daily low. A close below might test 3.7940 the low from yesterday trading session. A close below 3.7210 might cancel the recent rally and might push the price towards 3.6240 the 50-day moving average.

Bitcoin Price Breaks Above 18.000, What’s Next?

Bitcoin price breaks above the 18.000 mark after a strong move yesterday that first breached the 17.000 resistance during the European session; a move that sparked a new round of strong buying spree that send the bitcoin price to almost three-year highs.

Bitcoin bullish momentum started on October 21, after PayPal announced that will allow it’s users to buy hold and sell cryptocurrencies. The news drove the price above the resistance at the 13.000 mark. Positive news on the coronavirus vaccine front was the next catalyst that boosted risky assets and cryptocurrencies but put pressure to safe-haven assets such as gold. Sentiment boosted further by a clear victory Biden victory in the US elections. The speculation around a central cryptocurrency CBDC from many central banks CBDC around the globe have shifted also investors attention to the existing cryptocurrencies.

As of writing BTCUSD price is 3.11% higher at 18.221, at these levels, almost 98% of all Bitcoin addresses in existence have turned into a profit.

Bitcoin Capitalization Hits All-Time Highs

Meanwhile, the bitcoin capitalization hit fresh all-time highs surpassing 337 billion as the number of bitcoin in circulation are higher than December 2017. In December 2017 the bitcoin capitalization reached 328.89 billion.

Bitcoin rally the last two days has also lifted cryptocurrencies across the board. Ethereum price today is 0.58% lower at 480.01, Ripple is 2.21% lower at 0.2958, while Litecoin is 4.36% lower at 73.05. The global cryptocurrencies market capitalization increased by 5.50% today reaching 504.56 billion.

Tyler Winklevoss the founder and CEO of Gemini, welcomed today’s bitcoin move in a tweet saying “Bitcoin is knock, knock, knocking on 18k’s door” and in a second tweet added “The media has completely missed the recent Bitcoin bull run. This is the problem with a centralized media complex, it chooses the narrative it wants, not the one that’s actually happening. Time to decentralize.”

Bitcoin Technical Analysis

Bitcoin price trades 2.97% higher at 18.205 extending yesterday’s gains as the bullish momentum points to higher levels. Bitcoin has gained 16.93% the last five days, 50% the last month while it is 148% higher since the beginning of 2020.

Many analysts now expect a short correction before an attempt to all-time highs. The technical picture is bullish and any corrections might considered as a buying opportunity.

The intraday high at 18.483 would provide the first resistance level, while a break above might challenge the 19.000 psychological mark. A break above would attract fresh buyers and the next target would be 19.135 the top from December 19, 2017.

In case of a correction, the first support area stands at 18.000 round figure and then at 17.041 the daily low. A break below might test 16.592 the low from yesterday’s trading session.

Investing in China’s Stock Exchanges

China is the world’s second-largest economy, with a population of 1.4 billion contributing around 30 per cent of global growth in the last eight years.

China made impressive economic and social developments the previous years, but the market reforms are incomplete, and it’s per capita income remains at 25% of the average of the high-income countries. Chinese Government forecasts that it will eliminate absolute poverty by 2022. Statistics show that there are an estimated 372.8 million people below the “upper middle income” international poverty line of $5.50 a day.   

The Chinese economy has registered an impressive growth the last decade but now faces a major threat as USA has imposed tariffs to Chinese products. Chinese companies now facing increasing market-access challenges in the US, especially in B2B markets. A recent example is the ban of Huawei Technologies and ZTE from the telecom-infrastructure market, but also, federal government restricting its purchases of goods and services from Chinese companies but also discourages its core vendors from buying from China.

According to many analysts, China will overtake the U.S. by 2030 to become the No. 1 economy by GDP in the world.  China’s size and GDP growth rate, which hit 6.6% in 2018 and forecasts setting the growth rate at 6.3% for 2019, it’s not a surprise that global traders and investors are interested in China stocks and China funds.

Investing in Chinese companies involve risks such as currency risk (forex), volatility, regulatory risks, and country risk. Traders can buy stocks listed on the main Chinese stock exchanges, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. There are also many Chinese companies, that are listed in US Stock Exchanges through ADR’s.

Shenzhen Composite Index Technical Analysis

The Shenzhen Composite Index (SZSE Composite) is trading at 1631.88 registering gains for the second day in a row after yesterday the SZSE Composite tested successfully the 50-day moving average and managed to rebound keeping the bullish momentum for the index as now it trades above all major moving averages. On the upside immediate resistance stands at 1,696 the high from September 11th 2019, while the next resistance is at 1,798 the high from April 8th 2019.

Shanghai Composite Technical Analysis

The Shanghai Composite Index trading at 2,947 gaining 18.20% since the beginning of 2019 while for the 12-month period is adding 14.10%. In the daily chart, the momentum is positive as the index is trading above all major daily moving averages. The index found support at 2,920 the 100-day moving average. On the upside, first resistance for the Shanghai Composite Index stands at 3,042 the high from September 16th, while the next barrier will be the high from April 22nd at 3,274. On the flipside support for the index stands at 2,885 the 200-day moving average while next support is at 2,764 the low from August 15th.

Forex Technical analysis week: 9-13 October 2017

Forex Technical analysis week: 9-13 October 2017

10-12-2017

GBPUSD regains bullish momentum breaking above the 50 hour moving average and also breaking above the 50 daily moving average after rumors that EU may offer UK a 2 year transition period, stay long as the pair is trading above 1.32

10-11-2017

EURUSD keeps the positive momentum today for third day as EUR relief came from Catalunia president. Short term bullish is well intact as the pair trades above the hourly averages and now is testing the 50 day moving average, a break above will give the bulls the upper hand targeting 1.1862.

10-9-2017

GBPUSD made an impressive rally today gaining more than 100 pips from the lows at 1.3073. Consistent bids send the price higher to the first resistance level at the 100 hour MA at 1.3183 but the lack of volume gave the opportunity to sellers to take control, a move back to 1.31 area looks possible.

 

10-6-2017

EURUSD is trading higher for third day after it managed to find support at 1.1695. The pair has broken above the 50h MA today and reached the 100h MA at 1.1738. EUR was very strong today against USD despite strong NFP data.

For now next resistance is at 1.1830, support could be found at 1.1695 (low Oct 3) and 1.1662 (low Aug 17).

I am watching short term action closely as the bullish momentum on the daily chart is still intact, but I believe reading the short term signals suggest for a move to 1.15.

10-5-2017

USDJPY is trading in narrow 105 pip trading range for the last week. The price is trading below the 100h MA and finds support at 112.45, the 200h MA.  The biggest driver is the Fed rates decision in December and also Donald’s Trump tax reform which supports the US Dollar.  First resistance is 113.26 and then 113.82. A break below 112.45 will be bearish and can drive the price down to 111.75.




 

EURUSD is trading higher for second day after it managed to find support at 1.1695. The pair has broken above the 100h MA and reach today 1.1779. Stay long as long as the pair is trading above 1.1762.

For now next resistance is at 1.1830, support could be found at 1.1695 (low Oct 3) and 1.1662 (low Aug 17)

 

 

 

USDJPY and AUDUSD Technical analysis

Technical analysis

USDJPY changes direction to bullish as it breaks below the 50h MA. The pair hit the daily high at 111.59 during the Draghi speech, but sellers took control and driving the pair to 111

AUDUSD hits fresh 3 month lows at 0.7439 the lowest level since January 12, it is the fourth daily decline in a row and the pair has reached oversold level, we expect a small rebound.

GBP still holds the bullish momentum and every pull back is a buy opportunity. Bulls will get a boost if the pair will regain the 1.29 level

Technical Analysis for EURUSD and USDCAD

Technical Analysis for EURUSD and USDCAD

EURUSD gapped up higher today and is keeping most of the gains after the results of French election. The pair hit the daily high at 1.0904 and made the low at 1.0820 just below the 200d MA and is moving slower higher after. It is bullish that EURUSD tested with success the 200d MA, so we will stay long as the pair is trading above that support.

USDCAD makes and impressive comeback after touching the daily low at 1.3410, enhancing the bullish momentum that we wrote about last week. We are expecting short covering to start soon in the US session.

 

ATTENTION
The information is not an offer, no promotion, no consultation and no advice to buy or sell stocks, indices or currencies.  Trading stocks, indices or currencies is not only a chance, there is always a risk to lose money. Please only trade currencies if you are able to compensate possible losses. Please note that high profits always also contains a high risk. Please also trade with money that you dont need for daily costs.  Interferences with availability over the internet, availability of email deliverability or other software problems are further possible risks when trading with currencies




Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange (“Forex”), Commodity futures, options, CFDs and SpreadBetting on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange (“Forex”), Commodity futures, options, CFDs or SpreadBetting you should carefully consider your monetary objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your deposited funds and therefore you should not speculate with capital that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange, Commodity futures, options, CFDs and SpreadBetting trading, and seek advice from an independent advisor if you have any doubts. Past returns are not indicative of future results.
This technical analysis is intended to provide general information and does NOT constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors and traders should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

GBPUSD Technical Analysis

GBPUSD Technical Analysis

GBPUSD spiked higher early today breaking the 50h and 100h MA and hit the daily high at 1.2255, and now retracing back, breaking below the 1.22 level. This is a nice entry point for longs as long the 100h MA support is on hold.

 

AUDUSD Technical Analysis

AUDUSD deploys positive momentum from 9th March low at 0.7487 and is close to break above the 0.76 level after the FOMC decision today. The 100 days MA offers the long term support and the 50h MA tested today and send the pair higher.

 

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Sign of life for EURUSD

Sign of life for EURUSD

As we mentioned yesterday after 10 days the pair finally shows some sign of life. EURUSD had an impressive trading today, it hit the daily high at 1.0657, above the 100 hour MA. In fact there was a bar where the price closed above the MA for the first time since November 9th. Then the pair hit the daily low at 1.0582 and managed to rebound above the 50h MA. I am very bullish on that with first target at 1.0648

Find out the Factors That Drive Stock Prices

ATTENTION
The information is not an offer, no promotion, no consultation and no advice to buy or sell stocks, indices or currencies.  Trading stocks, indices or currencies is not only a chance, there is always a risk to lose money. Please only trade currencies if you are able to compensate possible losses. Please note that high profits always also contains a high risk. Please also trade with money that you dont need for daily costs.  Interferences with availability over the internet, availability of email deliverability or other software problems are further possible risks when trading with currencies.

 



Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange (“Forex”), Commodity futures, options, CFDs and SpreadBetting on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange (“Forex”), Commodity futures, options, CFDs or SpreadBetting you should carefully consider your monetary objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your deposited funds and therefore you should not speculate with capital that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange, Commodity futures, options, CFDs and SpreadBetting trading, and seek advice from an independent advisor if you have any doubts. Past returns are not indicative of future results.
This technical analysis is intended to provide general information and does NOT constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors and traders should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.
TCResearch guarantees neither the entirety nor accuracy of the analysis. Any consequent exposure related to the advice / signals which emerge in the analyses is completely and entirely at the investors own expense and risk. TCResearch is not responsible for any loss, either directly or indirectly, which arises as a result of the use of TCResearch analyses. Details of any arising conflicts of interest will always appear in the investment recommendations.

Forex Outlook and Analysis

Forex Outlook and Analysis

Investors could come to the conclusion that the policies in the coming years would be around lower tax, higher government spending especially on infrastructures, less regulations. Industrial and financial stocks benefited most from such expectations.

While USDollar was overwhelmingly strong for the week, it should be noted that GBP was indeed the strongest. GBP continued to ride on the recent turn in Bank of England’s stance to neutral. Meanwhile, there was additional boost from talks that Donald Trump would be a better ally to UK than the Obama administration. And soon will be a better trade US/UK trade deal. Secondly, the potential of US lowering its NATO commitments would improve UK’s position in Brexit negotiation. The Japanese Yen ended as the weakest major currency on strong risk appetite. That’s followed by Kiwi after RBNZ rate cut. And then EUR followed on uncertainty on what ECB would do after the current quantitative easing program ends next March.

We are bullish on USD after Trump victory.

Trump’s focus on boosting economy and cutting taxes suggest a fiscal stimulus boost to growth US economy.

Trump has suggested that higher tariffs would be directed against more open economies (Mexico and China etc), implying bilateral USD strength.

Corporate tax reform would likely include a repatriation taxholiday which would incentivize repatriation of foreign currency into USDollar.

The policy mix now has shifted in the direction of more inflation, which means that – given how dovish market pricing has been – there is room for the USDollar to catch up with where it should have been quite some time ago.

We are expecting USDollar to rise around 10 percent on a trade-weighted basis over the next three months.

EURUSD forex pair surged initially to 1.1298 last week but reversed and dived through 1.0850 support. The development indicates that choppy fall from 1.1615 has resumed. Initial bias remains on the downside this week, targeting 1.0517 low. On the upside, above 1.0953 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. Otherwise, we’ll stay bearish and expect a new low below 1.0461 at a later stage.

The euro is falling for the fifth day in a row against the US dollar and is about to post the lowest daily (and weekly) close since January.



In order to recover some strength, EURUSD needs to rise back and hold above 1.0850. On a wider perspective the euro could gain momentum, if it recovers above the 1.0950 area, where the 20-day moving average stands.

TCResearch

Gold Price Technical Analysis

Read forex articles and analysis

ATTENTION
The information is not an offer, no promotion, no consultation and no advice to buy or sell stocks, indices or currencies.  Trading stocks, indices or currencies is not only a chance, there is always a risk to lose money. Please only trade currencies if you are able to compensate possible losses. Please note that high profits always also contains a high risk. Please also trade with money that you dont need for daily costs.  Interferences with availability over the internet, availability of email deliverability or other software problems are further possible risks when trading with currencies
Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange (“Forex”), Commodity futures, options, CFDs and SpreadBetting on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange (“Forex”), Commodity futures, options, CFDs or SpreadBetting you should carefully consider your monetary objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your deposited funds and therefore you should not speculate with capital that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange, Commodity futures, options, CFDs and SpreadBetting trading, and seek advice from an independent advisor if you have any doubts. Past returns are not indicative of future results.
This technical analysis is intended to provide general information and does NOT constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors and traders should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.